Five million Kiwis by 2020

New Statistic New Zealand population projections show the country’s population is likely to hit the five million mark by 2020, if not sooner. File Photo

There's likely to be five million people crowding New Zealand By 2020 and possibly even sooner, according to Statistic NZ's latest population projections.

In the year to June 2016 the population grew at its fastest rate since the early 1960s, increased by 2.1 per cent, or roughly 97,000 people, says Statistics NZ senior demographer Kim Dunstan.

'Our population was estimated to be 4.69 million at 30 June 2016, with net migration being 69,100 over the June year.”

The latest projections show a high chance of the population rising to between 4.9 and 5.1 million by 2020. By 2025 the population is expected to be between 5.0 and 5.5 million. By 2068, the projections indicate a population of between 5.3 and 7.9 million.

The long-term median (mid-point) net migration is assumed to fluctuate around 15,000 a year.

But Kim says if there was average migration of 30,000 a year, the population could reach 7.5 million by 2068.

'Alternatively, that 7.5 million figure could also be exceeded with much higher fertility rates. If there was no migration, the population would peak at 5.3 million around 2050 and then slowly decline.”

The projections also shows growing numbers of older Kiwis in the coming decades.

The number of people aged 85 years and older will more than triple, from about 83,000 in 2016 to between 270,000 and 320,000 in the next 30 years.

Those aged 65 years and older will roughly double, from about 700,000 now to between 1.3 and 1.5 million in 2046.

Overall population growth is expected to slow in the longer term as the population ages and the gap between births and deaths narrows. The rate of population growth may halve to less than 1 percent in the 2030s.

The latest national population projections that look out to 2068 are not designed to be exact forecasts or predictions, but rather a guide to help planning, says Kim.

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1 comment

Crowded?!

Posted on 23-10-2016 17:47 | By maildrop

Hardly. Plenty of room, just need to be smarter. Welcome to the First World.


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