Early cyclone warning

Increased risk of a tropical cyclone threatening the Bay of Plenty and the East Cape is being predicted by Niwa for the coming cyclone season.

Niwa is also forecasting a busy finish to the tropical cyclone season this summer, with reduced activity from November to January and increased activity from February through to April.

Niwa are predicting a busy tropical cyclone season.

On average, New Zealand experiences at least one ex-tropical cyclone passing within 550km of the country every year.

If an ex-tropical cyclone comes close to the country during the coming season, the current background climate conditions suggest it has a higher probability of passing east rather than west of Auckland city, says the South West Pacific tropical cyclone outlook.

The cyclone predictions are based on an expectation of a weak El Nino developing in the coming months.

Conditions are indicated by sea surface temperature anomalies across the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the atmospheric circulation patterns that exist over French Polynesia and northern Australia.

With a weak El Nino, near normal tropical cyclone activity can be expected for many islands in the Southwest Pacific during the 2014–2015 season, with 8-to-12 named tropical cyclones forming across the region from November to April.

The outlook means New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, and Tonga could have two or more cyclones during the season, despite small differences from normal. At least one or more severe category 3 or higher storms could still occur anywhere across the Southwest Pacific.

Cyclones are classed from 1 to 5, with 5 being the most dangerous. For the coming season at least four storms are predicted to reach at least Category 3, with mean hurricane force wind speeds of at least 64 knots or 118 km/h.

Three of those systems may reach at least Category 4 with mean wind speeds of at least 86 knots or 159 km/h.

All communities should remain alert and prepared for severe events, with elevated risk forecast for countries situated close to the International Date Line including Tokelau, Samoa, Niue, Tuvalu and further east in the Southern Cook Islands.

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4 comments

Wet one

Posted on 15-10-2014 18:40 | By MISS ADVENTURE

Here we go again could be a blast always loved the wind and rain, shame about the floods though. Looks like the 10 year flood fix up works by Tauranga Council are going to be a bit late ...


Not

Posted on 15-10-2014 19:10 | By Capt_Kaveman

Hard. ive been waiting for the last 5 years and we are overdue


Cloudy With a Chance of Pavlova

Posted on 16-10-2014 07:35 | By Disappointed

That's one forecast I'd really like to see them get right!


Easy to copy other people's work

Posted on 16-10-2014 14:41 | By KenRing

NIWA keeps insisting no one alive can predict for more than 10 days ahead. Coincidental that this cyclone warning exactly matches what was in our October Predictweather.com newsletter. Just saying..


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