The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) are predicting El Nino will continue throughout summer and urge farmers to put a pasture and stock feed programme in place.

Aaron Stafford, Science Manager at Ballance Agri-Nutrients, has been monitoring the strengthening El Nino trend and says NIWA is predicting a ‘virtually certain' chance of the current El Nino climate pattern persisting into summer.

Farmers are being warned to prepare for El Nino to continue through summer. Photo: File.

Indications suggest that this is likely to be the strongest El Nino episode since the 1997/98 season.

'Top of everyone's mind is seeing the same weather patterns that were experienced during the last severe El Nino,” says Aaron.

'There will be valuable lessons from 1997/98 and I'd encourage farmers who may be new to an area to talk to farmers who managed through that season.

'The result of an El Nino will likely be higher rainfall in the western and southern parts of the country and very dry central and eastern areas, with a more extreme drought risk.”

In the areas where conditions look likely to be dry, Aaron is advising farmers to make the most of the rainfall while it lasts, by developing a plan to maximise grass growth and animal production early in the season.

'Focus on the opportunity to apply nitrogen, such as SustaiN, while there is still reasonable soil moisture to deliver grass growth and production early on.

'For example, greatest lamb growth rates are achieved while lambs are still on the ewe, hence increasing feed supply over spring with nitrogen can help you to finish as many lambs as early as possible.”

Aaron says this may help to capitalise on a more favourable early lamb schedule, while also taking pressure off pastures when things start to get drier.

For some farms, using more nitrogen may also provide an opportunity to take more supplementary feed off and feed it to stock later when the soil dries.

'Crops can provide high quality feed on farm, and can be very cost-effective when done well,” says Aaron.

'Think about the type of summer crops you are using, and use more drought tolerant species like chicory or lucerne. These plants have deep roots and will grow through the dry summer period.

'Or, if you are using other crops, like turnips, get them in early so they become well established before it gets dry.

'Farmers on the wetter, west side of the country can take advantage of the extra rain and may be able to use nitrogen to promote additional growth through the summer, as long as conditions remain suitable.

'Take care to avoid pasture damage through pugging with the wet soil conditions experienced this spring, by rotating and moving stock often.”

Even light-to-moderate pugging damage can compromise early season production, with up to 40 per cent reduction in annual pasture production recorded with more severe pugging damage.

Aaron says feed budgets should be updated regularly and will indicate when nitrogen applications will be most advantageous.

'The key to profiting from nitrogen is utilising the resulting extra feed effectively,” adds Aaron.

'It needs to go into filling a feed deficit or it should be turned into high quality supplement.”

Ballance is encouraging farmers to talk to their local nutrient specialist about strategies for coping with El Nino this season, as advice will be tailored to their local region.