New Zealand is moving into phase 3 of the Government's Omicron response at 11.59pm tonight, Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins has confirmed.

Hipkins also confirms that the community case total for the nation today is in the region of 5000, with an official tally to be confirmed at 1pm.

He says 205 people are currently in hospital and going forward, under phase 3, this will be a 'more important metric” than daily case numbers at this stage.

Hipkins says the move to phase three should not come as a surprise considering the sharp rise in cases in recent weeks.

"This continued rise and also the number of hospitalisations we have which today sit at 205 means that we are now confirming our shift to phase 3 of our planned Omicron response. That'll happen at 11.59pm tonight."

He says most have been gearing up for this and it will not come as a surprise.

However, the move to phase three will not mean a "sudden lurch" in terms of additional restrictions or movements, because the traffic light system has been designed to smooth things out already.

"Our priorities now shift to isolating those with Covid-19 and their household contacts to reduce the spread, while at the same time supporting supply chains and essential services to continue to operate."

Only confirmed cases and their household contacts - the people they live with - will be required to isolate. All other contacts will be asked to monitor for symptoms but they will not have to isolate.

Rapid antigen tests (RATs) will become the primary means of testing for Covid-19, and will be available from thousands of sites. Millions more are expected to arrive over the coming days.

It is expected that businesses will be able to make the tests available to the public through retail outlets from March, he says.

Because only household contacts are required to isolate, a self-assessment tool will help the government keep track of very high risk locations and the overall spread of the virus.

This includes things like hospitals and aged care facilities.

"There's no doubt the next few weeks are going to be pretty challenging... We just need to stick to the plan that we've set out as we manage a higher number of cases in our coming weeks before we reach a peak as other countries have."

He says Omicron's lower likelihood of severe illness, and high vaccination rates, are what allows the self-management approach.

He suggests people have an isolation plan, and talk to friends and whānau about how they will manage if they need to isolate.

He also urges people to take up booster shots.

"You are far less likely to end up in hospital if you get Covid-19 if you've had a booster."

Community providers are being resourced to provide wraparound health and care services in the community, alongside clinical care to those with higher needs.

"New Zealand is in a much better shape going into a potential peak of Omicron cases than many other countries, so keep supporting one another and we will get through this."

The government initially set out the three phases of its Omicron response late last month, signalling an increasing reliance on automated systems and home isolation as growing case numbers threaten to overwhelm contact tracing, testing, and MIQ.

It was initially suggested New Zealand may never reach phase three, expected to trigger when the country was getting about 5000 cases a day, but that now seems inevitable with case numbers topping 3000 yesterday.

It would see further changes to contact tracing, with the definition of contacts shifting to household and household-like contacts, meaning only the highest-risk contacts will need to isolate.

Rapid antigen (RAT) tests would be considered sufficient to diagnose cases, who will be encouraged to fill out an online contact tracing form and self-notify their close contacts.

Clinical care and welfare support would be targeted based on need.

The nature of Omicron means daily cases are expected to double every three to five days, and the outbreak is not expected to peak for another three to six weeks.

With the caseload rising so rapidly, GPs have warned they may not be able to cope, and Covid-19 testing laboratories have been inundated with high levels of demand.

But what is phase three? Why does it seem to be lowering requirements just when the outbreak is growing? And when will it all end? RNZ is here to clear it all up.

What is phase three?

Phase three is designed to help the health system handle an Omicron outbreak of several thousand new cases a day.

Rapid antigen tests will become a much more prevalent form of testing under phase three.

The shift means a greater focus on individual responsibility, rather than relying on health services to be able to cope and contact trace in the way they had earlier in the pandemic.

Testing

• Rapid antigen (RAT) tests will be considered enough to diagnose symptomatic people and priority groups.
• These tests, which are self-administered and give results in 15 minutes, should be available from doctors, pharmacies, community testing centres or workplaces.
• Critical workers including those in healthcare can use these tests daily to be able to go to work even if they are a close contact, so long as their employer is signed up to the scheme.
• Cases should get a test on day three and day eight of their isolation period, as should household contacts. Contacts not living in the same house should get a test on day five or if symptoms appear.
• PCR testing will continue to be used for those who need it.

Case and contact management

• People testing positive are notified by text message, not a phone call, and will be sent a link to complete an online contact tracing form. There will be a phone call option available for those without internet access.
• Contacts may be automatically notified from the contact tracing form, but cases can also be expected to notify their close contacts themselves.
• The definition of 'contact' changes to mean household and household-like contacts only. Contacts will only be required to isolate if they are high-risk (household) contacts.
• Notification of locations of interest are restricted to the most high-risk events.

Isolation

• Isolation times remain the same as the shorter period introduced in phase two: 10 days for cases, seven days for contacts.
• However, household close contacts should continue to isolate until the case in their home has completed 10 days isolation.
• Most people who test positive will be expected to look after themselves at home, leaving clinical care available for those with greater need.
• Official messaging is that there is unlikely to be other accommodation - such as MIQ - available for most cases. However, the government has repeatedly said arrangements will be made for those who have no home, are living in a vehicle, or are in other difficult circumstances.

Why do we need it?

While Omicron is considered milder than the dangerous Delta variant and is less likely to put people in hospital, some people do still get very sick and it spreads so quickly many more people can be expected to get very ill.

That is, while any one person is less likely to get severe symptoms, many more people overall can be quickly expected to get the virus, so the total number of people who do end up in hospital all at once is likely to be significant.

New Zealand has been recording steadily increasing numbers of daily cases, topping 3000 yesterday, and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has this week been saying the outbreak is not expected to peak for three to six weeks, and the nature of Omicron means case numbers can be expected to keep doubling every three to five days until we near that peak.

A Flourish data visualization

• See more Covid-19 graphs here

Ardern signalled New Zealand was likely to move to phase three when the country was hitting about 5000 daily cases. The government had said it was possible we might never reach that scenario but it now seems inevitable, and with high test positivity rates impacting laboratories' ability to process PCR tests at the rate required, it makes some sense to be moving early.

New modelling shows the peak of Covid-19 in the Omicron outbreak in Auckland and Northland alone could reach 4000 daily cases, if transmission is low, or 9000 if it is not.

Even a low-transmission scenario would mean about 400 cases from Auckland and Northland in hospitals at any given time. It would put heavy strain on New Zealand's health system - general wards as well as intensive care - which has suffered decades of underinvestment from successive governments.

A Flourish data visualization

The high number of cases means the follow-up interviews with cases and high-intensity contact tracing systems will not be able to keep up, so the systems will instead focus on the most high-risk people.

During this time, New Zealand can also be expected to remain in the red traffic light setting. Ardern has suggested these settings, the vaccine passes and mandates are likely to last until the country has progressed well past the peak of cases, so the health system remains operational.

Vaccinations - especially booster doses - are a big help in reducing hospitalisation from Omicron, and New Zealand's high rates will have helped prevent some of the high death rates seen overseas.

Masks and other public health measures like frequent, thorough hand-washing also help slow the spread of the virus, so it will be important for people to continue to do this while the virus is spreading.

While the government says it intends for heavy lockdowns to be a thing of the past, the traffic light system does maintain localised lockdowns as an option should things get really out of control.

Meanwhile, the government is also gearing up for more people to start isolating at home when arriving from overseas, beginning from next week with those coming from Australia and expanding to New Zealanders coming from the rest of the world two weeks later.

-RNZ.