Calls for return to Covid alert level system

Professor Michael Baker. Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone.

New Zealand has recorded its first case of the new Omicron subvariant BQ.1.1, and epidemiologist Michael Baker says a return to some kind of alert level system could help avoid the worst in future Covid-19 waves.

The Ministry of Health announced yesterday that Omicron subvariant BQ.1.1 was detected in a person who tested positive for Covid-19, as well as in Te Waipounamu wastewater samples.

Epidemiologist Michael Baker says that "unfortunately, it looks like more of the same," and that some kind of return to an alert level system could be helpful.

"We've already been through two big Omicron waves this year," in March with BA.1 and BA.2 and July with BA.5, he says.

"Each of these waves saw large numbers of cases, hospitalisations and deaths.

"If we see another wave rising, which seems very likely, and whether it's BQ.1.1 or one of the other subvariants that are starting to become dominant, we're going to see more cases and all the things that go with that."

The two main Covid restrictions still in place are requirements to self-isolate for seven days if positive, and mask wearing is required in health and aged care facilities.

Although the traffic light system was scrapped in September, Baker believes there's still a need for some kind of alert level.

"What I do think we need is that we have a system that when the risk of infection rises we have the equivalent of an alert level system that describes the level of risk in a way that people really understand.

"We have alert level systems for fires, for earthquakes, for all these other threats. I think we need one again for the pandemic."

Baker says such a system could have simple measures that kick in when cases reach a certain level, such as mask mandates for public transport.

"I think at the moment, unfortunately, government and other groups are quite worried as being seen to do anything systematic.

"I think we need that leadership with the pandemic."

On Monday, the government announced 11,205 new community cases of Covid-19 in the country in the last week, up from under 10,000 new cases the prior weeks.

The BQ.1.1 variant is already causing cases to surge in Europe.

"The list of new subvariants appearing within New Zealand is lengthy and growing," the Ministry says in a statement yesterday.

"So far, most Omicron variants have not demonstrated a change in severity of the disease. Early evidence overseas suggests the BQ.1.1 has a growth advantage relative to BA.5, the dominant variant currently circulating in New Zealand."

Baker says each subvariant of Omicron is unique.

"These subvariants are often very different than those that have come before.

"In a way the mere fact that they're becoming more common overseas and causing waves of infection means they're more likely to do the same in New Zealand.

"They're surviving or thriving by escaping our existing immunity.

"Personally I know people who have had [Covid] three times. ... and in some cases they say it was not milder when they got it again."

University of Auckland computational biologist David Welch says there appears to be a slow rise in cases.

"Cases have been rising recently, pretty much since the beginning of October.

"I think at the moment that that's caused by the relaxation of protective measures that we saw about a month ago now.

"If that's all it's caused by then we'd expect to see kind of a small increase in cases and then come back down."

Baker says about 10 per cent of new Covid cases are reinfections, but in reality it's probably higher than that.

Welch says a new subvariant such as BQ.1.1 could drive cases up.

"If one of those really gets a foothold here - they're already circulating - then we could see a more significant wave."

Watching how subvariants are spreading overseas, he says BQ.1.1 seems to be the one that is increasing most widely and most rapidly.

Welch says that booster shots can be an important tool in preventing cases getting worse.

"There's two ways to get immunity: you either get infected which can be very unpleasant or sometimes outright dangerous, or you can get a vaccine. Like natural immunity, vaccine-induced immunity does wane."

University of Auckland vaccinologist Helen Petousis-Harris told RNZ earlier this week that most people should have enough immunity from three boosters and not need a fourth.

Welch says while he's not a vaccinologist, he's not sure he agrees.

"I think we should be regularly having boosters. At the moment a booster twice a year looks like it would be very sensible because we're getting waves more frequently than that."

Baker says there's less worry about the hospital system being overwhelmed, thanks to improved treatment and antivirals.

"It really pushed the health system but basically workers in the system now can manage this infection very effectively."

However, he says dealing with Covid-19 patients was still having a knock-on impact on people who may need medical care for other reasons, "and it is putting a real burden on the system".

-RNZ.

9 comments

No way!

Posted on 14-10-2022 10:43 | By First Responder

Covid is going to be around for years. This Government has destroyed enough businesses. Its just a bad flu. If you're worried about it, get immunized. Otherwise, lets live a normal life. Stop creating panic.


I'm missing the lime light

Posted on 14-10-2022 12:29 | By an_alias

You need to get over it Baker, we are all tired of hearing from you. We have to live with it like colds and the flu.


place

Posted on 14-10-2022 13:13 | By dumbkof2

luckily that place is not in new zealand


@First Responder

Posted on 14-10-2022 13:24 | By The Professor

I'm assuming your 'call sign' is not literal otherwise you wouldn't say that COVID is just like the flu. It may well be just that to many people but for others it is far worse, especially if they end up with long COVID. I do agree with you though....we need to move on and to a large degree, take our chances. We have a long way to go still with COVID.


Overit

Posted on 14-10-2022 14:07 | By overit

Everyone has had enough Baker. Perhaps put your energy into saving the Healthcare System. The northern hemisphere will have bugs soon because they are going in Winter, we will be fine because its Summer.


A lead balloon.

Posted on 14-10-2022 15:01 | By morepork

"Baker says such a system could have simple measures that kick in when cases reach a certain level, such as mask mandates for public transport." Professor Baker is not suggesting anything unreasonable. But most of us are simply "Covid exhausted" and even a sensible suggestion will go down like a lead balloon. The Government is afraid to mandate anything Covid-related because of the previous reactions, and so no proper leadership (by example and explanation) is forthcoming. It will probably take another major wave, with the accompanying deaths, before we take an interest again. For myself, I'm keeping a K95 mask in my pocket and will put it on when I think there is a fair risk, whether it is mandatory or not. It didn't save me last time, but, in all conscience, I can't just do nothing... I probably won't get boosted again though... Still too controversial.


Michael Baker

Posted on 14-10-2022 15:02 | By Corwen

Had anyone heard of Michael Baker or Siouxsie Wiles or Michael Plank before Covid arrived??? Leaders in their respective fields but unheard off. Now they have to try an maintain their public profile and scarce monger on those that "believe"


No thanks

Posted on 14-10-2022 17:38 | By Potofstu

Sorry but you wanted to lockdown nz because of the influenza virus. You are a hindering nz to get on with life


@The Professor

Posted on 15-10-2022 15:24 | By morepork

You are right in your response to First Responder. I remember when I first tested positive and couldn't believe it. I had done everything recommended, including getting the third shot (booster). I expected to fight for my life (based on the information we had been given) but it was nowhere near as bad as that (for me...). I can understand how people think it is just like 'flu, but that view is also incorrect. Healthy people don't die from 'flu and the symptoms of 'flu, generally, are not as bad as Covid. I had maybe 3 days that were really miserable and similar to a REALLY BAD case of 'flu, but I used regular chicken soup (made from scratch; no processed cans or packets involved) and large doses of vitamin C. It did the trick (probably along with being vaxxed).


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