Five months out from the election, the latest Newshub-Reid political poll shows Te Pāti Māori could hold the keys to power, with the two main parties running neck and neck.
The poll, released Sunday evening, had Labour at 35.9 per cent, down 2.1 points; while National are down 1.3 points to 35.3 per cent.
The poll also shows ACT is at 10.8 percent, up just 0.1 per cent, while the Greens are on 8.1 per cent, unchanged despite recent problems within the party.
Te Pāti Māori are at 3.5 per cent and on current polling could get five seats, which would enable it to form a government with Labour and the Greens.
Assuming it wins an electorate, that would give it five seats in the House, which with Labour's 46 and the Greens' 10 is enough to reach the 61 seat threshold to form a government.
New Zealand First has risen 0.8 points to 3 per cent - still not enough to return to Parliament.
National ruled out working with the Māori Party last week, which could make the party's attempts to form a government that much harder.
Chris Hipkins' personal popularity as prime minister - just under four months since he took office - is now at 23.4 per cent, up 3.8 points.
But National leader Christopher Luxon was down 2.4 points to 16.4 per cent as preferred prime minister, his lowest point in Newshub's poll so far.
That is lower than the 18.4 per cent that former National leader Judith Collins scored in a similar Newshub poll before losing the 2020 election in a landslide.
The election is set for 14 October, exactly five months from today.
Another question by Newshub asked voters if they thought leaders were in touch with the issues - 49.9 per cent agreed Hipkins was in touch, but the results were almost the exact opposite for Luxon, and 47 percent said he was out of touch with the problems affecting New Zealanders today.
Other polls continue to point towards a tight election.
A Taxpayers Union-Curia poll released last week had Labour dropping to 33.8 percent while National was at 35.6 per cent.
That poll had ACT picking up 3.2 percentage points compared to the previous survey, bringing its support to 12.7 per cent, almost equivalent to the 3.1 percentage points Labour lost. In that poll the Green Party gained 0.3 to 7 per cent, and Te Pāti Māori gained 0.8 to 3.7.
A 1News Kantar poll conducted in March showed Labour leading National by a tight margin, 36 to 34 percent, with the Greens and ACT both at 11 percent.
Since Newshub's last poll in January, there has been the flooding in Auckland, Cyclone Gabrielle, the sacking of Stuart Nash, the defection of Meka Whaitiri to Te Pāti Māori, the resignation of Dr Elizabeth Kerekere from the Greens, and National's decision to rule out working with Te Pāti Māori.



7 comments
Hmmm
Posted on 15-05-2023 12:41 | By Let's get real
The ultimate cost of the MMP electoral system... Extremely poor multiparty government. The right looks more likely to be stable, particularly in light of recent developments. The sideshow that is supposed to be our parliament is a disgraceful spectacle, as we are seeing egotistical nonsense paraded about and petty one-upmanship abound in place of reasoned debate and statesman like behaviour. How much work is actually going on...?
Latest poll shows ACT increasing.
Posted on 15-05-2023 13:59 | By morepork
Polls are famously inaccurate but a centre right option is good, as far as I'm concerned. I can't vote Labour based on what they have done to Democracy, and I'm not comfortable with National while Luxon is the leader. ACT have some very good ideas and policies and a coalition with National/ACT would be a better government, in my opinion. I think (hope) a lot of people are moving in this direction.
I don’t know
Posted on 15-05-2023 14:38 | By Andrew64
Who they ask for these polls because it sure ain’t me. Anyone even remotely considering letting this rabble continue in power should be committed.
@Andre64
Posted on 16-05-2023 13:28 | By morepork
Thaks for your post, it made me smile. And I agree 100%.
Well said
Posted on 16-05-2023 21:12 | By Shadow1
Morepork, I’ve been thinking along those lines for some time. It has to be said that the previous government to this, the coalition of Labour and NZ First was the best we’ve seen for years. Labour weren’t comfortable with it but at least the worst of their ideas were laughed out of town. Any coalition of the Nats, Act or NZ First would be good. Even a threesome! It would pretty well guarantee that decisions would be thoroughly debated before being actioned. Also the democratic process will be returned to Tauranga. Te Pati Maori have openly boasted that if they became the king maker they would use the power to disrupt parliament. God forbid. Come on NZ, use the party vote to create a great coalition. Shadow1
@Andrew64
Posted on 17-05-2023 17:26 | By This Guy
yeah because nothing says "democracy" like locking up your political rivals...
@Shadow1
Posted on 18-05-2023 12:17 | By morepork
Thanks for a very well-reasoned response. I like your coalitions and I really hope others will also see these options. I didn't know about Te Pati Maori expressing an intention to disrupt Parliament. I guess that would be their response to the non-attainment of "co-governance". I hope they reconsider. I was shocked when their Deputy Leader, in the heat of the moment, admitted: "We don't want Democracy. Democracy means the majority rules...". Given that, it amazes me that any of their MPs attend the beehive.
Leave a Comment
You must be logged in to make a comment.