A group of Glenholme residents fear a draft housing strategy for Rotorua will push issues associated with the homeless further into their suburb and claim a consultation document on the proposal is 'misleading”.

The Rotorua Lakes Council has defended the consultation document but has acknowledged some errors and says the work needed to prepare the strategy is complex.

Save Glenholme Group opposes the potential intensification of the neighbourhood and says residents' quality of life would be impacted if high-intensity housing was to be built in the suburb, where many elderly lived.

Hozumi Daiya, a group member, had written to neighbours imploring them to make submissions on the Rotorua Lakes Council's draft Future Development Strategy documents, which are out for consultation until July 14.

The strategy pinpoints which areas were likely to see growth and includes potential high-density buildings in the next 30 years in Glenholme.

In the letter, Daiya said the group believed once high-density buildings began, the entire suburb would be 'targeted”.

She also believed there was a lack of clarity on where high-density housing could go, with errors in maps showing different locations.
Daiya said she did not think the city needed high- or medium-density housing.

She told Local Democracy Reporting, that in her view, aspects of the strategy were 'misleading” and her examples included that the council's long-term future growth predictions varied from Government statistics, and Daiya believed it was able to access the last two years of population data but excluded it. These years saw negative growth, with 300 people estimated to have left Rotorua.

If this had been factored in, she believed the growth percentage each year from 2013 to 2022 would be 1.14 per cent, instead of the 1.8 per cent the council listed in the consultation document for the 2013 to 2020 period.

Stats NZ last December released population predictions for 2018 to 2048, and under a medium-growth model, it estimated 7400 more people in Rotorua.

The council strategy documents said 14,400 more people were predicted in the next 30 years, which came from a 2021 report informed by Infometrics using a medium-growth model.

It was also misleading, in her view, that the document included an artist impression of what looked like three-storey housing on Fenton St placed next to information on high density, which could be built up to six storeys.

Artist impression of potential development of Fenton St. Image / Rotorua Lakes Council.

Maps in the strategy documents were also inconsistent. One showed potential high-density housing reaching south to Devon St, while another Holland St, three blocks closer to the city.

The online version of this had been updated to the Holland St version.

Potential high-density areas in eastern suburbs were also inconsistently mapped: the full draft showed streets in Lynmore earmarked for this, but in the consultation document it was shown as being centred on Vaughan Rd in Ōwhata. The council said this would be updated to the latter.

Group member Judith Lewis said a letter drop encouraging residents to make submissions aimed to give a voice to the 'predominantly retired and elderly” residents of Glenholme.

'For the past three years, they have had to endure increased crime and anti-social behaviour as a result of nearby motels housing the homeless.”

There had been improvement, she said, but the suburb was still not as safe as it once was, and 'the residents of Glenholme don't want to live in fear and uncertainty any more”.

'There will still be genuine hardworking people who need a step-up, like first-home buyers, but are they going to be the people who want to rent in a building like that surrounded possibly by people who do not necessarily have the same aims in life?”

Council district development deputy chief executive Jean Paul Gaston said the topic was an important conversation for the future of the community and encouraged people to have a say.

'What's proposed reflects what we know from data projections provided in 2020. We expect that over the 30-year life of the [strategy] those projections and the needs of the community will change, and the three-yearly reviews will ensure the plan accurately reflects those changes.”

Acting mayor Sandra Kai Fong said the strategy would ensure that as the city grew it did so in a planned and considered way, in the right places.

'It is important to understand the draft is just a proposal at this stage and, once adopted, it will be reviewed every three years to ensure it remains aligned with growth projections as they evolve.

'It's great to see our community participating in consultation on the draft strategy – feedback is really important to help us in our decision-making and whether you agree or disagree with the draft or parts of it, we want to hear from you.”

The physical draft Rotorua Future Development Strategy 2023 consultation document showed potential high density housing, in dark brown, reaching to Devon St in Glenholme. Source / Rotorua Lakes Council.

The council also provided information about the strategy, including how central government required it to prepare a strategy every six years and update it every three years.
It also required bottom lines for development capacity to be set, including competitive margins. The council also needed to enable higher-density development in places with good accessibility and high amenity, such as being close to the CBD, with good transport and existing infrastructure.

Areas marked as potential growth spots would need to be rezoned and require interest from landowners as well as a District Plan change process.

It also depended on the market and what landowners and developers wanted and were able to do. Zoning did not guarantee that height limits would be developed to their maximum.

The council also noted the errors in the maps.

As for the growth projections, the council said it employed professional companies using expert advice. It said 'determining future population projections is complex”, and it did not use a single stream of data such as year-on-year Stats NZ population data.
The Infometics and Stats NZ data had been compared for its 2021 report.

'Stats NZ provides a good baseline but does not take into account the nuance that Infometrics have built into their projection methodology.”

The short-term projections varied to a 'limited extent”, and it would rely on both sources of data for the strategy reviews.

'It is important to note that this is a long-term strategy that responded to data trends that are estimated over periods of time.

'It is not best practice to modify a strategy based on yearly changes as global/national events can trigger short-term changes in the economy, migration, and population while trends show consistent long-term movement in data whether that is up or down.”

It also said it was more prudent to prepare for what it might need and reduce capacity if that growth was not seen.

- Public Interest Journalism funded through NZ on Air.