More than half a million voters could take a seat from the National Party's general election result and change the power dynamics of Christopher Luxon’s coalition discussions with the ACT Party and New Zealand First as he seeks to form a government.

Luxon wore his usual relaxed, jovial demeanour as he spoke with reporters in Auckland, despite facing the prospect of losing his majority at 2pm on Friday, when the Electoral Commission releases the final election result – an outcome which would give New Zealand First an advantage in negotiations, because Luxon would need the party.

But even if National keeps its seats, it has a one-seat majority with the ACT Party, which political commentator Grant Duncan says still leaves the party on weak ground without New Zealand First.

“It’s so tight. Even if he [Luxon] did have a one-seat majority, that is just not good enough because he would be worried about an ACT MP going rogue – you get a Gaurav Sharma situation and that majority can start to look shaky, easily,” says Duncan.

Luxon euphorically accepted his party had won the 2023 general election on Auckland’s waterfront nearly three weeks ago, after the preliminary election result of votes counted on October 14 gave it a slim one-seat majority with the ACT Party, ousting Labour after six years.

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters offered his help, if needed, to form a new government on election night. Luxon accepted, despite asserting working with the party to form a government was a “worst-case scenario” only weeks earlier.

Now 567,000 special votes – which Luxon says tends to favour the left – could give Peters an advantage in coalition discussions.

About 1 in 5 of the total votes came from New Zealanders based overseas, or who enroled to vote on the day, or who voted in an electorate where they were not enroled. Luxon, speaking in Auckland on Wednesday, says those votes tended to bolster the left-wing parties.

Duncan says the votes are more likely to bolster the left, but nothing is certain.

Special voters, including those based overseas, might still hold resentment towards the former Labour Government for its managed isolation and quarantine lottery system, which locked people out of the country for months on end.

Other special voters could include flooding victims from February’s severe weather event, who have been relocated in temporary accommodation in other regions.

“It is hard to know how those cohorts felt about the previous government when they went to vote, it is likely they won’t be very happy,” he says.

As well as the party vote, a number of electorates were too close to call, with only dozens of votes between the top two candidates.

The smallest lead was in Nelson, where incumbent Labour MP Rachel Boyack holds a margin of just 54 votes ahead of National’s Blair Cameron. It will be the special votes which decide the winner.

Luxon questions why the special vote count takes 20 days, suggesting the Electoral Commission could give daily updates, and run local government elections to ensure it has “muscle memory” of running elections.

He also suggests special votes tend to favour the left but says in this instance “who knows”.

However, Duncan is not concerned about the 20-day delay from election day, until the special votes were counted. This was because special votes enabled more people to engage in the democratic process.

Karl Le Quesne, Chief Electoral Officer, says it follows the process in the Electoral Act for producing the official results.

Staff have been working long hours and weekends to make sure the results are released on time. The 20-day time frame for the official count is the same as it was in 2020.

“The law makes it clear that the results can only be released when all the ballot papers for an electorate have been processed, including special votes. The results are signed off by a Justice of the Peace and the returning officer for the electorate before they are reported to the Electoral Commission,” he says.

The results for each electorate and the nationwide party vote are then released together.

-Bridie Witton/Stuff.