As summer approaches, Tauranga can expect mainly fine weather this week, with occasional clouds. Daily temperatures are on the rise, starting at a pleasant high of 18 degrees Celsius on Monday, November 4, and reaching up to 22 degrees Celsius by Saturday.

Overnight temperatures are also expected to drift upwards over the week with 7 degrees Celsius expected to be the lowest tonight heading to 14 degrees overnight by the end of the week.

A frontal rainband will slowly move northward across the South Island on Tuesday. While there’s a low confidence that rainfall could reach warning levels in Westland, Grey, and Buller districts—particularly in the ranges—there is moderate confidence that a heavy rain warning may be issued for the Paparoa ranges.

On Wednesday, the frontal rainband is expected to linger over the central or southern North Island. Meanwhile, a weak ridge of high pressure will bring calmer conditions to the South Island. Currently, there is minimal risk of severe weather impacting the country.

The front will weaken over the central North Island on Thursday, while another front in the Tasman Sea approaches the southern South Island late in the day.

Expect strengthening north-westerly winds across the South Island, with low confidence that these winds could reach severe gale force in Fiordland and Southland, including Stewart Island, later in the day.

On Friday, November 8,  the front will advance onto the lower South Island, bringing heavy rain to western regions and strong north-westerly winds in the south and east. There is moderate confidence that rainfall will reach warning criteria in the ranges of Westland and the Canterbury Headwaters near the main divide, with low confidence for other western areas from southern Buller to Fiordland.

Additionally, there’s a slight chance of severe gales in exposed parts of inland Canterbury, Otago, Southland, and Fiordland.

Stay tuned for updates as we monitor these weather changes throughout the week!