Latest poll puts Labour at 53, National at 32

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and National leader Judith Collins. Photo: RNZ

The One News Colmar Brunton poll released last night has support for Labour at 53 per cent, National at 32 per cent, NZ First at 2 per cent, and the Greens at 5 per cent, and ACT is at 5 per cent.

The New Conservatives and Māori parties are each on 1 per cent.

On those results, Labour could govern alone.

Labour leader Jacinda Ardern has 54 per cent in preferred Prime Minister, while National's Judith Collins is at 20 per cent. ACT leader David Seymour and New Zealand First's Winston Peters are each at 1 per cent.

Collins has a 27 per cent approval rating as National leader, however, considerably higher than Muller and Bridges.

On measures of people's trust for the party leaders, Ardern is at 82 per cent, Collins is at 47, and Peters is at 34 per cent.

The new poll followed one from Newshub-Reid Research on Sunday, which had the National Party's popularity sinking to new lows.

That survey - the first since Judith Collins took over as leader - showed National slumping to 25.1 per cent.

That's down from 30.6 per cent in May, a result which spelled the beginning of the end for then-leader Simon Bridges. Labour was on 60.9 per cent - up 4.4 points.

National campaign chair Gerry Brownlee denounced the Newshub-Reid Research poll as a "rogue" result.

Speaking from the campaign trail in Palmerston North, Collins told reporters she felt "very strongly" that the results were "clearly false".

National released its internal polling to MPs on Tuesday, and, on Wednesday, Collins told Morning Report that the results are "close to" 47 per cent and 36 per cent, presumably in favour of Labour.

Heather Roy, a political commentator and former ACT deputy leader, told Checkpoint the poll felt "much more realistic" than the Newshub-Reid Research poll on Sunday.

"I think most of the parties will probably agree with that, particularly the two major parties. It's worth bearing in mind that no party in the last 69 years has got more than 50 percent and I still don't think any party will get more than 50 percent at this election."

Dave Cormack, political commentator and former policy advisor to the Greens, told Checkpoint he did not think tonight's poll showed that the last one was "rogue". Instead, he thinks it reflects the period which people were polled.

"There hasn't been good news for National for a very long time. I suppose this week's been good insofar as no one has resigned."

"I've never seen anything like it."

Roy says Collins would be happy with the upward trend for her as leader compared to her predecessors, but would not be satisfied with 20 percent as preferred Prime Minister.

"She'll be striving hard to lift that," she says.

She expects National's support to rise and Labour's to drop before the election.

Roy says National will need to pull something "revolutionary" out of the bag for New Zealand's economy to be able to get their support up.

Cormack agrees that National needs to announce a policy that could get people excited.

"I'm sure there will be a 10-lane road announced in the coming days."

Cormack says Labour will be reluctant to announce any policy that risks alienating voters while they're polling at such high numbers.

Both agreed the poll indicated New Zealand First and its leader Winston Peters were in serious trouble.

-RNZ.

4 comments

My trouble

Posted on 31-07-2020 08:30 | By Merlin

My trouble is when they say they will do something at an election is will it happen or not.My mind goes back to not increasing GST,returning to resume Super contributions when in surplus, the 10 bridges in Northland saga.Will these promises end up the same.


Time to retire Winston

Posted on 01-08-2020 12:07 | By kumera

I feel it is so important that New Zealanders vote wisely this year. LABOUR MUST GOVERN ON ITS OWN. Jacinda Ardern has put our tiny country on the map globally like no other in the world. The world has watched her & listened to her. We would not be where we are right now regarding Covid19. This has been such a hard year for anyone running a country and she is the one that has stood out yet again and praised around the world. No other NZ prime Minister could ever imagined to dream the success she has made without even trying, she is always just being herself. We must all remember this and be proud she is our Prime Minister that others envy who takes care of its people like no others have done as well as her.


Winston.

Posted on 01-08-2020 16:44 | By morepork

I met Mr. Peters one night at a petrol station. We were both getting gasoline and chatted for about 5 minutes. I decided I liked him. And, while he was representing Tauranga he certainly did much for us. Although others later tried to take credit for things he had actually done, he didn't get unwrapped, just moved on. All of that was "long ago" and now we see things in different lights. He has been pushing strongly to open the border with Oz, and, although many would like that, it really isn't viable at the moment. He has acted as "Kingmaker" through several elections but the current alliance has been the worst (IMHO) and has seen NZ First support dropping to an all-time low. It seems to me that Winston has made a huge contribution to our country, but it is over now. Retire and go home.


I agree with some...

Posted on 01-08-2020 16:48 | By morepork

...of what kumera wrote. Jacinda Ardern has been nothing less than outstanding as a PM and as a person. We are indeed lucky to have such people. But I'm not sure that a Labour majority, on its own, would be the best thing for NZ at the moment. Coalitions are always a two-edged sword, with good and bad effects, but a single ruling Party can lead to extreme aspects of their platform being implemented and that may not be a good thing. It's going to be an interesting election this time...


Leave a Comment


You must be logged in to make a comment.