Cyclone Dovi to unravel over NZ this weekend

Satellite map as of 9am Thursday.

UPDATE 11.43AM: Central NZ is in for another burst of heavy rain as the remnants of a tropical cyclone move in this weekend.

"The storm will actually help trigger heavy rain before it moves in too with the bulk of the rain expected to fall through central NZ (upper South Island, lower North Island)," says WeatherWatch.co.nz

"The top and bottom regions of NZ look mostly dry - although northern NZ will be immensly humid over the coming 72 hours with Fiji airflows moving in - but, a cooler change moves out of the South Island and into the North Island by Monday."

EARLIER:

Tropical Cyclone Dovi is today tracking through southern Vanuatu and eastern New Caledonia before heading to NZ this weekend.

WeatherWatch.co.nz says the storm is expected to fall apart in the New Zealand area but early estimates are that it will likely dump 150 to 250mm across a large portion of central NZ (upper South Island, lower North Island). (highest totals in the mountains and ranges where totals may exceed 250mm).

"Dovi's main rain bands may likely miss the top of the North Island - but tropical humidity is about to increase even further in northern areas, peaking on Saturday and Sunday, before easing as a cooler change moves in behind it," says a spokesperson for the weather organisation.

"That's right, it's not even peak humidity yet!

"Rain from Dovi is also expected to spread into Canterbury - but a much cooler change arrives on Sunday with Christchurch having a high of just 13 degrees as Aucklanders wake to 23 degrees and 95 per cent+ humidity.

"We'll have more details in the coming days - and also more in our weather video out by noon today."

Fiji MetService tracking shows Dovi reaching Category 2 strength west of the North Island.

Wind gusts as of 9am this morning.

Next 7 days Rainfall - Departure from Normal - very clearly shows where Cyclone Davi's rain will track.

JTWC tracking for Dovi into the NZ area.

IBM's current thinking of areas most impacted by heavy rain over the coming four days.

It's a little messy to look at, but what this map shows is that the world's three most reliable global model forecasts are basically in agreement about what will then be ex-tropical cyclone Dovi as it moves into NZ on Sunday.

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