OCR hike: What we know so far

The Official Cash Rate (OCR) was lifted to 4.25 percent, the highest level since December 2008, the biggest single rise since the OCR was established in 1999 and the ninth consecutive rise. Photo: RNZ.

Tighten your belts and prepare for recession - that's the message the Reserve Bank is sending after hiking the official cash rate by the single biggest level since December 2008.

After raising the wholesale interest rate 75 basis points to 4.25 per cent yesterday, it's signalled more is to come to curb rampant inflation.

This could include lifting the OCR to 5.5 per cent by September next year with no hint of a cut before late 2024.

Homeowners can expect mortgage rates of eight per cent.

The Labour Party says it planned for this, while National is pleading for the government to do what it can now to avoid further economic pain.

Here's what we know so far:

Recession is necessary - Adrian Orr

Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr.

The recession will be shallow but necessary, Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr told RNZ's business editor Gyles Beckford.

"It's a shallow slow down, short-lived slow down, but it's necessary to take that excess demand pressure out of the economy."

The Reserve Bank is deliberately raising interest rates to slow spending, says Orr.

This is to better match the ability of the economy to supply the goods and services being demanded, he says.

"At the moment, those capacity constraints are always and everywhere and hence, inflation is rising. That is a global phenomenon."

Mortgage rates are heading to eight per cent and Orr says households will need to rein in other spending as best they can.

"All households have been stress tested at interest rates at these levels so it shouldn't come as a surprise when they took on mortgages and banks stress tested them...

"It's about thinking a bit harder around your discretionary spend."

Some businesses have enjoyed very strong periods of growth, Orr says.

He says it's fair to say some workers are paying the cost.

"It either comes out of margins, ie. people don't pass on their costs or it comes out by reducing the cost, one of which is labour relative to inflation.

"This is the traditional tension - who bears the cost," Orr says.

In a perfect world, disinflation would happen in a nice even manner, he says. "But we can't manufacture that."

'We planned for this' - Robertson

Finance Minister Grant Robertson. Photo: RNZ / Angus Dreaver.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson told Morning Report while yesterday's news may have been sobering for many, the Labour Party has said 2023 would be a difficult year.

"We planned for this. You don't need to do a knee-jerk reaction if you plan for these things."

Labour will bring government spending as a percentage of GDP back down to pre-Covid levels, Robertson says.

He would not say whether the Labour Party would rule out a tax cut package.

"The reason I can't answer that question is because the Labour Party hasn't set its policy for the 2023 election, of course we'll take things into account as they develop."

Any tax changes that weren't part of policy would not be done this term, he says.

National considers scrapping top tax cut policy

National Party finance spokesperson Nicola Willis. Photo: RNZ / Angus Dreaver.

The National Party is reconsidering its top tax rate drop because the economy is in worse shape than predicted.

The party had planned on scrapping the top income tax rate of 39 per cent if elected next year.

National Party finance spokesperson Nicola Willis told Morning Report yesterday's news persuaded the party to consider the change.

"We've always said that we will be careful managers of the economy first and foremost and that we would respond to the fiscal economic conditions."

Her plea to the government is "do what you can do now", she says.

"There are things the government should have done and could do right now that would alleviate some of the economic pain New Zealanders are facing."

She wouldn't say whether National could get inflation under control without a recession.

"We want to get inflation under control we want to take every step that the government can take and what we're committing to doing is exactly that.

"I'm not getting my crystal ball out and committing to what will happen with the economy 12 months from now, look at how much has changed in the past six months."

-RNZ.

7 comments

Phew!!!

Posted on 24-11-2022 11:15 | By The Professor

I am pleased I locked in at 2.99% for 5 years back in late 2020. Hopefully the rates will be back down by October 2025.


Orr needs to go

Posted on 24-11-2022 17:46 | By Tga Citizen

It must be comforting to know, as a government worker, that a recession you cause, because of your previous financial mismanagement will not cause your unemployment without a huge financial payoff. I can understand he feels for the common person, they all get a $834,000 pay packet don't they?


Apologies

Posted on 24-11-2022 21:15 | By Kancho

Adrian Orr said sorry as they didn't restrain spending and the bank and government printed money and borrowed and threw money about . So he admitted this has made inflation worse and a recession is on the way. He also says stop spending but obviously as out if touch as the government all who have plenty of money . Pity those with new mortgages with impossible hikes in interest on the way with diminished values. He asks for no wage increase and probable more unemployment. Yet we have sixty three percent more on job seeker benefits with this government . Total government mismanagement


@The Professor

Posted on 25-11-2022 15:27 | By morepork

Good forethought on your part. By October 2025 we should have a new Government and that is the thing most likely to return stability and a reasonable rate of inflation.


@The Professor

Posted on 25-11-2022 15:27 | By morepork

Good forethought on your part. By October 2025 we should have a new Government and that is the thing most likely to return stability and a reasonable rate of inflation.


@Tga Citizen

Posted on 25-11-2022 17:29 | By Slim Shady

He does but for different reasons to your thinking. His hands are tied because he is tasked with bringing inflation down and has one blunt tool - OCR. The inflation was caused by reckless Government borrowing, printing money and spending. The Government was told to 'ease the jets' 2 years ago by the World Bank and OECD. Robertson and Adhern ignored the warnings. Orr should have told them then to stop it but he didn't because they employ him. Now he's telling Kiwis to 'ease the jets' and stop spending. Yet the Government and Tauranga City Council ignore it. They mistakenly seem to think that public sector spending doesn't cause inflation. It's reckless stuff. So yeah, Orr needs to go but so so a lot of others.


@Slum shady

Posted on 26-11-2022 08:25 | By Kancho

Yes that's right. To me is says this government is ideologically driven and came with little experience. They spin and talk big spend big but achieve little. They were six months too slow getting vaccines that were offered to them and then closed the country too long because of that. They exacerbated inflation by spending that fed inflation . They won't admit there are several crises and delivered so little in every area . They push through on unwanted legislation and miss priorities everyone can see.


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